I Will Not Sell when they buy

In another year, at a similar time, we were happy. We had good reasons to be happy, our investments were growing at a good rate- no not at a good rate, at an unbelievable rate. Financial gurus and technical experts were all upbeat about the Indian growth story's reflection in the Index of Stocks.

Everyone was fiddling with their demat accounts, from the pan wallah to the IT professional. And they had reasons to do so. Money was pouring into the Indian bourses. Ostensibly, dollars were finding a new home, making partnerships with the rupees. And when one becomes blinded by the quick gains (and they were huge gains), he forgets about his partner- what is he really up to?

Housewives who had nothing to do at home started doing some home shopping. It was all clear in everyone's minds- India is on her way up. No one really noticed the speed with which things were turning out. One of the Seven Deadly Sins had been incurred, incurred on a colossal scale. The Sin was Greed.

People never knew what hit them, how it hit them, and how long was it going to hit them. They had been buying, taking off some air from the bubble that was being built and putting it safely in their electronic balloons. They took off little pieces of the huge volumes that were being traded by the Big Boys, without realizing what the Big Boys were really up to. By sheer luck, the air suddenly expanded in that balloon and they all felt happy.

The Big Boys had a lot of gas, by the way. They created more air, more people got lured into this gaseous trade. The Big Boys never really wanted this to happen. It was amongst themselves- the wrestling for the rising buck (or the falling one). The retail traders were like those irritating house-flies that aggregate when they smell some nice air.

However, the Big Boys were buying then, and buying hard. Were they actually buying? Or just passing the parcel- from one to another at a higher rate? The general public never realized this. And when they were buying, some of us were busy booking profits and buying again- getting lured again by the prospects.

Wow.

Now.

The Big Boys are selling, smartguy! Oops, your money! Why did it suddenly shrink? This should not have happened! But then, how could it happen?

Well, here's how.

There are two ways to make quick money in the bourses if you have a lot of money. (Oh, there's actually only one way to do so- beat the other guy. Buy from him when he's all out, wriggling for cash- and sell to him when he's confident, happy with cash.)

The first way is called the "Call" in the option's market and "Buy" in the future's market.

The second way is called the "Put" in the option's market and "Sell" in the future's market.

The Big Boys were using the first way last year, and what they are doing now is the second way. They had a good margin- a very good one during the second time- almost a 50% one (or maybe more, as time will tell).

And they have good reasons to sell now. The world's economy, that was looking all so spectacular a year ago is now speculated and foresighted as going down a gloomy spiral. The Indian economy, (that was seen as one of the fastest growing economies in the world that would not stop growing for what, some 25-30 years now) has suddenly garnered enough speculation to prove it slowing down, corroborated by the "global factors". The same Boys that were buying so ferociously for 2-3 years into the Indian companies, are now getting their dollars out since they have to be used to pay off other debts that they created by madly (apparently) taking risks.

Now if you look at the Sensex at 8000 some years ago and if you look at it now, the buyers then were buying into relatively expensive stocks. The same scrips, the same companies are now poised at a much better stage, buying other companies outside the nation, having growth prospects better like never before.

Let me put my case straight now:

Fundamentally, the cash investor of this date, of this age is at a beautiful advantage. And the ones who are holding "expensive" material which has suddenly cheapened are at a slight disadvantage. And those who are selling off their goods in sheer panic are going to curse themselves for selling their stuff to some vile, some intelligent buyers who will be cashing in on that a day that's not so far away. And on that day again, the Big Boys shall be playing as usual, unaffected by the sentiment they have created.

Bearing the Bears

Now when the bears are attacking, everyone's getting beaten. Every meaning of "beaten" holds true here. What the not so common investor would be realizing, thinking and anticipating is this:

The bubble has burst, no second thoughts on that. Traders are dying, some of them literally attempting suicides. The Indian Sensex and the Nifty have gone down by almost 50% from their year highs. This is "credited" to the FIIs going out, booking losses, profits and despair.

Scientists and artists have love and marvel symmetry. Investors do not. Traders neither. They expect the rise, and never the fall. (Well, some of they do, and they earn, but that is not the general trend- no one enjoys a falling market). The fall of Bear Stearns was just the tip of the iceberg. Freddy and Fannie, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merill Lynch - all of owned the muscle in the financial town, and suddenly succumbed to a myalgia caused by their own incessant and idiotic risk taking coupled by a simultaneously growing mistrust amongst bankers who are realizing "no lending" is better than lending sometimes.

"Liquidity" and "Crunch" are two inseparable words now. The US treasury is stepping in to bail out the spoiled brats who did not know how to manage their funds. That is in itself a calculative risk. Back home, when P. Chidambaram is saying India is secure and is on her way up like never before, no one is actually listening. There are some last men standing, but they have always been standing.

Now if the US has to really turn things around, it would look to create more jobs for its citizens. It has to tax those outsourcing jobs out of the USA harder. It would not be very capitalistic, but capitalism does not seem to be working at this point of time. There is an inertia that is being seen by the common investor. Now if the US really pressurizes those "outsourcers" then that would hit the Indian IT industry. That is bound to happen. So the focus shifts to India. Well, when that happens, the whole world will not be watching India, but that's another story. Now if the Indian IT industry does not want to take that hit, it has to start moving away from the dollar. Europe seems to be a potential destination.

Now what I am trying to prove is that in whatever has happened, whatever is happening and whatever will happen, the robust Indian Economy has never lost, is not losing, will not lose given the strong corporate and financial management of the market drivers and a capable Finance Minster in P. Chidambaram. Hell, the guy has done whatever he could in such a crisis.

The Tests Have Begun

India is the unofficial capital of the cricket world. This statement has been corroborated by the Australians staying back in India after deciding to not to play cricket in Pakistan, a decision which has two sides, if not faces. Many suggest that big money has lured the Australians to come to India and play, but they are certainly overlooking the basic difference between Pakistan and India. While Pakistan has been depicted by the media as swimming in an ocean of an imbroglio of uncertainties, India is being looked upon as a place to earn money especially when it comes to cricket- the baptized "passion" of the nation.

But is it really the passion of the nation? The very statement is the Test that I am talking about.

It was known that the advent of Twenty20 would kill the Test audience figures after maiming the ODI ones. And that unfortunately has happened.

One might think that Twenty20 games is what interests the regular cricket audience now, that is getting bored with Tests and even ODIs. A true passionate follower of the game would be cherishing every ball bowled, irrespective of the ball being bowled in Test cricket or in Twenty20.

There are other countries like Australia and England where Twenty20 format was introduced much before, but Tests and ODIs have not lost their glory. The tickets for coming Ashes, for example, would have already been booked.

A lot of people now feel that there has been an overdose of India/Australia clashes now. This is ridiculous since the clash is happening after a whole year now, but it sure is a fact that there has been an "overkill"- of cricket, not of the contest in context, there has been an excess of everything in Twenty20- the same faces, the same attitudes.

So the Test really is for the Test version to stay afloat. Although there are people who love watching Test cricket, it sure isn't getting the attention it used to get when Twenty20 was not there.

There has to be a way to balance the two versions. Err... did I say two? There has to be a way to balance all the three versions of the game. The ICC has to look at how FIFA has managed things with club football and national contests.

Meanwhile, we will see in a few days time if the Test passes the Test.