Monday, May 25, 2009

Which industry will do now what IT did then?

The thing is a lot of rupees have been bought by paying dollars (the price of the dollar went significantly lower from 49-50 to 47-48). Such transactions are not normally done for a shorter term, ie, no one would bring in their money to short sell. They have p-notes for that!!

Having said that, there are a lot of expectations from the new govt. In my opinion, they should not overly spoon-feed the sectors of the economy who've only now started making losses (when they earlier have made killings) such as real estate- bailing out of companies in the US and stimulus packages worldwide have happened as the economy there was totally doomed and out. In india, this is not the case. As far as real estate is concerned, prices are not the problem. Lack of customers is the problem. Lack of buyers is the problem. In other sectors like steel & co, the businessmen could do without those chinese dumps- otherwise, they're fine.

What the govt should focus on are issues like domestic security, poverty eradication, provision of better basic services and employment; while providing a level playing field wherever possible. Industries like Shipbuilding, Biotechnology and Healthcare have the potential of putting Indian on the global roadmap- they have already been buzzing, but have not made any major, out of the box achievements if we compare to what IT has done to India. These three sectors, in my opinion can and will be the "next big things". Another major focus for the government should be R&D. R&D leads to innovations, and innovations lead to new products and services. There is huge scope for R&D in Shipbuilding, Biotech and Healthcare. India is yet to become the outsourcing hub for Shipbuilding that it can become. Lower costs and the R&D potential back my case. As far as R&D in (agri) Biotech and Healthcare is concerned, there has been a lot of noise in the previous decade; but there haven't been overly successful results. If you consider Monsanto- the $11 billion american biotech company, and you consider its Indian counterparts such as partner Mahyco, you would know the difference that lies and the potential in the field. Similar is the case with HC. If you know about the relationship between Pfizer’s growth and R&D, you would know what I mean. (And if you know about the love of major Indian pharma companies towards off patent drugs and the recently over hyped “generics”, you would be convinced of what I am implying!)

So, as an investor, where would you put your money? My suggestion would be the above discussed (albeit briefly) 3 sectors. Plus one. IT (Yup!) Why IT? E-Governance. The beauty about IT is that it is never short of newer avenues. The beauty about E-governance solutions clientele is that it is the government! There would be no Obama to churn out those Buffalo policies (that don’t go well with the Indian IT bull!). And there is immense scope in e-governance as well. Imagine putting a billion people on the mainframes! And it’s not just about the mainframes. Subsidiary and complementary e-Governance solutions has a long market potential as well. So while Shipbuiding, Biotech and Healthcare can do what IT did in the last decade, IT can further its advance and example in this decade!

Coming back to domestic security, poverty eradication, provision of better basic services and employment. The first point needs no elaboration. The second point - poverty eradication would actually come as a huge stimulus to the economy as the general consumer base would have grown manyfold. Employment is the solution and the NREG schemes are the benchmarks. The UPA govt has done its homework in the past 5 years, and knows what is to be done now. That’s the advantage of a good continuing government that actually wants to do something. And boy, we have another advantage. Dr. Singh- an economist as a prime minister in this hour (or should it be year, or decade, err.. time will tell) of crises!

Friday, December 26, 2008

Beyond Pakistan, Think

26/11/2008 is one date that no Indian would forget easily. Nor would any Indian forgive any terrorists. And before you read any of the following lines, please bear in mind that my grief for the terror victims is as much as yours and I am a patriot and a consistent one.

The aftermath of the terror attacks can be called pitiable, if not foolish. Newspapers “put things into perspective” and conclude that India and Pakistan are on the brink of war. The Pakistani Government (or the military establishment? Whatever...), hysteric as always reportedly scrambles fighter aircraft over two of its major cities, thus copying that hysteria, that “sullen feeling of war looming in the sky” into the general masses. Back home, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee is quoted in the newspapers as a war of coercive words develops between the two neighbours. News channels, magazines and local newspapers draw out comparisons between the two nation’s armed forces, belittling the enemy as the lesser foe. Then we have politicians like Mr. Antulay who want a bit of the action amongst all the confusion, and generate even more drama if this was not enough. While this happens, volatile news readers get louder. Amidst this confusion, a saner voice was heard a few days ago. “The issue is not war,” said the Prime Minster of India. Bravo!

Yes, the issue is not war. Instead of continuing with this confusion, and spilling that into the minds of the citizens of the country by indirectly deputing it to the media, what the Government of India should do is revamp the entire defense system that is in place. The entire police system needs a renovation. Potbelly officers should be “worked out” and newer incentives should be laid out to the youth to join such services. An increased pay is definitely one such incentive. Also, the infrastructure and the equipment that the police use have to be constantly upgraded. In other words, we have to flex the right muscle. A country with a population of more than a billion people certainly needs more cops than it has now. There can be a secret police to guard the interests of the country and her people. I may not be good at strategic planning in such areas, but I do have a point that can be extrapolated by a more qualified person.

Instead of figuring out ways to kill those who kill us, we should devise ways to stop those who try to kill us from killing us. Trying to use the first alternative can be disastrous, and India knows it surely and verily. Both the nations in contention are nuclear powers and both have the capacity to annihilate each other. We are fighting for survival, and not fighting for death. The purpose is simply not served.

Then, while we are upgrading our defenses, we should also focus on developing the domestic economy further. Development through inflationary growth is a process that has worked wonders till now. Now as the world faces its worst economic crisis that has not been fuelled by a major war, a lot more thinking has to be done in such areas. People with vested interests in the economy never do good to the economy and in actual effect, they never do any good to themselves as they never really “cash out”. The government needs to make this point clear to them somehow, but that is difficult as simply stating such statements doesn’t work. Pure capitalism has failed for now, and we have to chew that fact and digest that fact. Derivatives of a failed economy also fail, and these days, well, derivatives are assuming even more importance than the underlying assets. But there is a positive end to this failure. The failure is going to lead to corrective measures – the economy is going to look after itself, it always looks after itself. But the catch here is that the governments should not go all out to “bail” toxic companies. Instead of spending crores of rupees trying to bail out sick units of the private sector, the government should keep focusing on issues such as unemployment. If we get back to the basics, economic prosperity will follow.

So how do we counter this terror machine? The terrorists have a mind. They too are humans, and they have their own thinking. Their interpretation of the holy Qur'an is not the same as the Muslims we personally know, but they have been led to believe that what they do is right and they will earn paradise by doing that. Now that very man, who is going to pull the trigger, or activate that grenade, is not insane. He has his own thinking, his own ideas. His commanders tell him about the atrocities on Muslims around the world, that Islam stares extinction. Does it? It does not. We know that. And that is not enough. They should know that. Their Muslim brothers the world over should hold protest rallies, voluntarily, letting them know that no one is being oppressed in this free world. That this world is paradise itself, and by committing suicide or any sin, you are revoking your privileges of living in a paradise. But for this to happen, oppression of not only Muslims in minority areas, but also of every person – of every caste and creed – should be fought against by the Governments. The government should let the terrorists know who is in charge and that prevention of oppression is its own duty. Only when equality is established in its true sense, through love and not through force, and when the message of love transpires to the other end, will this saga of terrorism stop. People fighting for their rights is not new. For the Americans, at one time the British were the terrorists. For the British, at one time Bhagat Singh was a terrorist. But this time it is slightly more complicated. The world is coming to an end if Nostradamus is to be believed. Let us all save it through brotherhood and universal love.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Can't we afford higher fuel prices?

Wham-Bam it's election time, oh yeah! And the government has given out its first promise! Cheaper fuel if you make us win!

Now, let us sit on a vantage point.

Few quarters ago, the RBI was helping the severely bleeding Oil Marketing Companies by subsidizing fuel, that is, providing it at a lesser price, so that, in effect, the OMCs can give the "junata" cheaper fuel. Now that did not work out nicely, crude was too high, and the subsidies could not curtail the losses. If we look at the balance sheets of these companies, HPCL incurred a QUARTERLY loss of Rs. -3218.92 crores in September, as against a profit of 726 crores in the YEAR before (that includes another dismal quarter offsetted by RBI issuing bonds and previous quarters' profits). The total debt of HPCL itself is Rs. 16786.70 crores.

Now with that information, we move ahead. The media (read "news channels bickering for a price cut in fuels") is demanding cheaper fuel. The government is anyways making losses on LPG sales, and the PM of India rightfully denied fuel cuts a week ago on the very reason. We are lucky to have such a great PM at the centre. An economist as a PM is the best thing we could ask for- and have, in this economic crisis.

We ought to be more responsible, and should stop demanding lower prices for fuel. It is also true that not everyone can afford highly priced petrol and diesel. But is it also not true that the section of the society that cannot afford that can always use the public transport system? Instead of bickering for cheaper fuel, the media and the responsible citizens of this country should influence and encourage the usage of public transport and methods like carpooling and bicycle usage. The youth should step up and boyfriends should stop flurrying about the city on their bikes with their girlfriends in pillion if they cannot afford it.

If we step away from the economic side, and again think, there's another point to this as well.

Oil is a depleting resource. Fuel emissions harm us, and harm the environment as well. People should be discouraged from using private vehicles for every peccadillo of a situation. Public transport system should be improved and promoted. Fuel is not water. Amusingly enough, even water is scarce, nowadays.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Duckworth Lewis Method is a sad Method

In a cricket match between two sides: A and B, if A scores 240/3 in 30 overs and if side B scores 241/9 in 30 overs, then who wins?

The Duckworth-Lewis says side A.

Consider the next match that was played between the two sides: A scored 240/3 in 50 overs this time and B scored 241/9 in 50 overs. I won't make you guess this time on the winner.

Reason?

Justice says side B.

Now when we go back to the first scenario and change the data slightly,

Replace A by India and B by England. India scores 166/4 in 22 overs. Rains bring in the Duckworth-Lewis method. England end up scoring 178/8 in 22 overs (which happens to be a larger score in the same number of overs).

A simple plus-minus logic says England won. The Duckworth Lewis is not so simple, and it ends up declaring India as the winner (of course, England always knew their target of 198 and that is not my point- I'm not trying to make England win as I am an Indian and a patriot).

Now the result of the match may have significant effects on both the participants and the volatile media (read "newspapers" and "news channels") who will glorify the Indian victory and in doing so, have the capacity to put any person who really has that spirit of the game in him in an odd situation. Now if that person were the captain of the Indian cricket team, he would not mind much, or give much thought to it since many of his ancestor-captains had faced the wrath of this method, and this was the time to redeem those points. OK, given.

For a moment, give a thought to those England fellows, the side that could not win- they did not lose, by the way. Generalize that "side that could not win" to "sides that could not win" and you would find almost all the major cricket teams having been owned by this outdated (the DL actually was also never the opposite of outdated) method that the ICC still uses to resolve shortened matches. In the spirit of the game, they say, it lies.

In the spirit of any game, it is also true that no one should bicker at any loss befallen.

But in the spirit of any game, the result should be decided by the efforts of the participants, not by formulae created by some mathematicians who have no idea of the efforts put in by the participants in that very match- this is akin to making robots that have a human brain, if you get my point. My point in the last sentence however, is vague. As vague as the Duckworth Lewis method.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

I Will Not Sell when they buy

In another year, at a similar time, we were happy. We had good reasons to be happy, our investments were growing at a good rate- no not at a good rate, at an unbelievable rate. Financial gurus and technical experts were all upbeat about the Indian growth story's reflection in the Index of Stocks.

Everyone was fiddling with their demat accounts, from the pan wallah to the IT professional. And they had reasons to do so. Money was pouring into the Indian bourses. Ostensibly, dollars were finding a new home, making partnerships with the rupees. And when one becomes blinded by the quick gains (and they were huge gains), he forgets about his partner- what is he really up to?

Housewives who had nothing to do at home started doing some home shopping. It was all clear in everyone's minds- India is on her way up. No one really noticed the speed with which things were turning out. One of the Seven Deadly Sins had been incurred, incurred on a colossal scale. The Sin was Greed.

People never knew what hit them, how it hit them, and how long was it going to hit them. They had been buying, taking off some air from the bubble that was being built and putting it safely in their electronic balloons. They took off little pieces of the huge volumes that were being traded by the Big Boys, without realizing what the Big Boys were really up to. By sheer luck, the air suddenly expanded in that balloon and they all felt happy.

The Big Boys had a lot of gas, by the way. They created more air, more people got lured into this gaseous trade. The Big Boys never really wanted this to happen. It was amongst themselves- the wrestling for the rising buck (or the falling one). The retail traders were like those irritating house-flies that aggregate when they smell some nice air.

However, the Big Boys were buying then, and buying hard. Were they actually buying? Or just passing the parcel- from one to another at a higher rate? The general public never realized this. And when they were buying, some of us were busy booking profits and buying again- getting lured again by the prospects.

Wow.

Now.

The Big Boys are selling, smartguy! Oops, your money! Why did it suddenly shrink? This should not have happened! But then, how could it happen?

Well, here's how.

There are two ways to make quick money in the bourses if you have a lot of money. (Oh, there's actually only one way to do so- beat the other guy. Buy from him when he's all out, wriggling for cash- and sell to him when he's confident, happy with cash.)

The first way is called the "Call" in the option's market and "Buy" in the future's market.

The second way is called the "Put" in the option's market and "Sell" in the future's market.

The Big Boys were using the first way last year, and what they are doing now is the second way. They had a good margin- a very good one during the second time- almost a 50% one (or maybe more, as time will tell).

And they have good reasons to sell now. The world's economy, that was looking all so spectacular a year ago is now speculated and foresighted as going down a gloomy spiral. The Indian economy, (that was seen as one of the fastest growing economies in the world that would not stop growing for what, some 25-30 years now) has suddenly garnered enough speculation to prove it slowing down, corroborated by the "global factors". The same Boys that were buying so ferociously for 2-3 years into the Indian companies, are now getting their dollars out since they have to be used to pay off other debts that they created by madly (apparently) taking risks.

Now if you look at the Sensex at 8000 some years ago and if you look at it now, the buyers then were buying into relatively expensive stocks. The same scrips, the same companies are now poised at a much better stage, buying other companies outside the nation, having growth prospects better like never before.

Let me put my case straight now:

Fundamentally, the cash investor of this date, of this age is at a beautiful advantage. And the ones who are holding "expensive" material which has suddenly cheapened are at a slight disadvantage. And those who are selling off their goods in sheer panic are going to curse themselves for selling their stuff to some vile, some intelligent buyers who will be cashing in on that a day that's not so far away. And on that day again, the Big Boys shall be playing as usual, unaffected by the sentiment they have created.