26/11/2008 is one date that no Indian would forget easily. Nor would any Indian forgive any terrorists. And before you read any of the following lines, please bear in mind that my grief for the terror victims is as much as yours and I am a patriot and a consistent one.
The aftermath of the terror attacks can be called pitiable, if not foolish. Newspapers “put things into perspective” and conclude that India and Pakistan are on the brink of war. The Pakistani Government (or the military establishment? Whatever...), hysteric as always reportedly scrambles fighter aircraft over two of its major cities, thus copying that hysteria, that “sullen feeling of war looming in the sky” into the general masses. Back home, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee is quoted in the newspapers as a war of coercive words develops between the two neighbours. News channels, magazines and local newspapers draw out comparisons between the two nation’s armed forces, belittling the enemy as the lesser foe. Then we have politicians like Mr. Antulay who want a bit of the action amongst all the confusion, and generate even more drama if this was not enough. While this happens, volatile news readers get louder. Amidst this confusion, a saner voice was heard a few days ago. “The issue is not war,” said the Prime Minster of India. Bravo!
Yes, the issue is not war. Instead of continuing with this confusion, and spilling that into the minds of the citizens of the country by indirectly deputing it to the media, what the Government of India should do is revamp the entire defense system that is in place. The entire police system needs a renovation. Potbelly officers should be “worked out” and newer incentives should be laid out to the youth to join such services. An increased pay is definitely one such incentive. Also, the infrastructure and the equipment that the police use have to be constantly upgraded. In other words, we have to flex the right muscle. A country with a population of more than a billion people certainly needs more cops than it has now. There can be a secret police to guard the interests of the country and her people. I may not be good at strategic planning in such areas, but I do have a point that can be extrapolated by a more qualified person.
Instead of figuring out ways to kill those who kill us, we should devise ways to stop those who try to kill us from killing us. Trying to use the first alternative can be disastrous, and India knows it surely and verily. Both the nations in contention are nuclear powers and both have the capacity to annihilate each other. We are fighting for survival, and not fighting for death. The purpose is simply not served.
Then, while we are upgrading our defenses, we should also focus on developing the domestic economy further. Development through inflationary growth is a process that has worked wonders till now. Now as the world faces its worst economic crisis that has not been fuelled by a major war, a lot more thinking has to be done in such areas. People with vested interests in the economy never do good to the economy and in actual effect, they never do any good to themselves as they never really “cash out”. The government needs to make this point clear to them somehow, but that is difficult as simply stating such statements doesn’t work. Pure capitalism has failed for now, and we have to chew that fact and digest that fact. Derivatives of a failed economy also fail, and these days, well, derivatives are assuming even more importance than the underlying assets. But there is a positive end to this failure. The failure is going to lead to corrective measures – the economy is going to look after itself, it always looks after itself. But the catch here is that the governments should not go all out to “bail” toxic companies. Instead of spending crores of rupees trying to bail out sick units of the private sector, the government should keep focusing on issues such as unemployment. If we get back to the basics, economic prosperity will follow.
So how do we counter this terror machine? The terrorists have a mind. They too are humans, and they have their own thinking. Their interpretation of the holy Qur'an is not the same as the Muslims we personally know, but they have been led to believe that what they do is right and they will earn paradise by doing that. Now that very man, who is going to pull the trigger, or activate that grenade, is not insane. He has his own thinking, his own ideas. His commanders tell him about the atrocities on Muslims around the world, that Islam stares extinction. Does it? It does not. We know that. And that is not enough. They should know that. Their Muslim brothers the world over should hold protest rallies, voluntarily, letting them know that no one is being oppressed in this free world. That this world is paradise itself, and by committing suicide or any sin, you are revoking your privileges of living in a paradise. But for this to happen, oppression of not only Muslims in minority areas, but also of every person – of every caste and creed – should be fought against by the Governments. The government should let the terrorists know who is in charge and that prevention of oppression is its own duty. Only when equality is established in its true sense, through love and not through force, and when the message of love transpires to the other end, will this saga of terrorism stop. People fighting for their rights is not new. For the Americans, at one time the British were the terrorists. For the British, at one time Bhagat Singh was a terrorist. But this time it is slightly more complicated. The world is coming to an end if Nostradamus is to be believed. Let us all save it through brotherhood and universal love.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Can't we afford higher fuel prices?
Wham-Bam it's election time, oh yeah! And the government has given out its first promise! Cheaper fuel if you make us win!
Now, let us sit on a vantage point.
Few quarters ago, the RBI was helping the severely bleeding Oil Marketing Companies by subsidizing fuel, that is, providing it at a lesser price, so that, in effect, the OMCs can give the "junata" cheaper fuel. Now that did not work out nicely, crude was too high, and the subsidies could not curtail the losses. If we look at the balance sheets of these companies, HPCL incurred a QUARTERLY loss of Rs. -3218.92 crores in September, as against a profit of 726 crores in the YEAR before (that includes another dismal quarter offsetted by RBI issuing bonds and previous quarters' profits). The total debt of HPCL itself is Rs. 16786.70 crores.
Now with that information, we move ahead. The media (read "news channels bickering for a price cut in fuels") is demanding cheaper fuel. The government is anyways making losses on LPG sales, and the PM of India rightfully denied fuel cuts a week ago on the very reason. We are lucky to have such a great PM at the centre. An economist as a PM is the best thing we could ask for- and have, in this economic crisis.
We ought to be more responsible, and should stop demanding lower prices for fuel. It is also true that not everyone can afford highly priced petrol and diesel. But is it also not true that the section of the society that cannot afford that can always use the public transport system? Instead of bickering for cheaper fuel, the media and the responsible citizens of this country should influence and encourage the usage of public transport and methods like carpooling and bicycle usage. The youth should step up and boyfriends should stop flurrying about the city on their bikes with their girlfriends in pillion if they cannot afford it.
If we step away from the economic side, and again think, there's another point to this as well.
Oil is a depleting resource. Fuel emissions harm us, and harm the environment as well. People should be discouraged from using private vehicles for every peccadillo of a situation. Public transport system should be improved and promoted. Fuel is not water. Amusingly enough, even water is scarce, nowadays.
Now, let us sit on a vantage point.
Few quarters ago, the RBI was helping the severely bleeding Oil Marketing Companies by subsidizing fuel, that is, providing it at a lesser price, so that, in effect, the OMCs can give the "junata" cheaper fuel. Now that did not work out nicely, crude was too high, and the subsidies could not curtail the losses. If we look at the balance sheets of these companies, HPCL incurred a QUARTERLY loss of Rs. -3218.92 crores in September, as against a profit of 726 crores in the YEAR before (that includes another dismal quarter offsetted by RBI issuing bonds and previous quarters' profits). The total debt of HPCL itself is Rs. 16786.70 crores.
Now with that information, we move ahead. The media (read "news channels bickering for a price cut in fuels") is demanding cheaper fuel. The government is anyways making losses on LPG sales, and the PM of India rightfully denied fuel cuts a week ago on the very reason. We are lucky to have such a great PM at the centre. An economist as a PM is the best thing we could ask for- and have, in this economic crisis.
We ought to be more responsible, and should stop demanding lower prices for fuel. It is also true that not everyone can afford highly priced petrol and diesel. But is it also not true that the section of the society that cannot afford that can always use the public transport system? Instead of bickering for cheaper fuel, the media and the responsible citizens of this country should influence and encourage the usage of public transport and methods like carpooling and bicycle usage. The youth should step up and boyfriends should stop flurrying about the city on their bikes with their girlfriends in pillion if they cannot afford it.
If we step away from the economic side, and again think, there's another point to this as well.
Oil is a depleting resource. Fuel emissions harm us, and harm the environment as well. People should be discouraged from using private vehicles for every peccadillo of a situation. Public transport system should be improved and promoted. Fuel is not water. Amusingly enough, even water is scarce, nowadays.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
The Duckworth Lewis Method is a sad Method
In a cricket match between two sides: A and B, if A scores 240/3 in 30 overs and if side B scores 241/9 in 30 overs, then who wins?
The Duckworth-Lewis says side A.
Consider the next match that was played between the two sides: A scored 240/3 in 50 overs this time and B scored 241/9 in 50 overs. I won't make you guess this time on the winner.
Reason?
Justice says side B.
Now when we go back to the first scenario and change the data slightly,
Replace A by India and B by England. India scores 166/4 in 22 overs. Rains bring in the Duckworth-Lewis method. England end up scoring 178/8 in 22 overs (which happens to be a larger score in the same number of overs).
A simple plus-minus logic says England won. The Duckworth Lewis is not so simple, and it ends up declaring India as the winner (of course, England always knew their target of 198 and that is not my point- I'm not trying to make England win as I am an Indian and a patriot).
Now the result of the match may have significant effects on both the participants and the volatile media (read "newspapers" and "news channels") who will glorify the Indian victory and in doing so, have the capacity to put any person who really has that spirit of the game in him in an odd situation. Now if that person were the captain of the Indian cricket team, he would not mind much, or give much thought to it since many of his ancestor-captains had faced the wrath of this method, and this was the time to redeem those points. OK, given.
For a moment, give a thought to those England fellows, the side that could not win- they did not lose, by the way. Generalize that "side that could not win" to "sides that could not win" and you would find almost all the major cricket teams having been owned by this outdated (the DL actually was also never the opposite of outdated) method that the ICC still uses to resolve shortened matches. In the spirit of the game, they say, it lies.
In the spirit of any game, it is also true that no one should bicker at any loss befallen.
But in the spirit of any game, the result should be decided by the efforts of the participants, not by formulae created by some mathematicians who have no idea of the efforts put in by the participants in that very match- this is akin to making robots that have a human brain, if you get my point. My point in the last sentence however, is vague. As vague as the Duckworth Lewis method.
The Duckworth-Lewis says side A.
Consider the next match that was played between the two sides: A scored 240/3 in 50 overs this time and B scored 241/9 in 50 overs. I won't make you guess this time on the winner.
Reason?
Justice says side B.
Now when we go back to the first scenario and change the data slightly,
Replace A by India and B by England. India scores 166/4 in 22 overs. Rains bring in the Duckworth-Lewis method. England end up scoring 178/8 in 22 overs (which happens to be a larger score in the same number of overs).
A simple plus-minus logic says England won. The Duckworth Lewis is not so simple, and it ends up declaring India as the winner (of course, England always knew their target of 198 and that is not my point- I'm not trying to make England win as I am an Indian and a patriot).
Now the result of the match may have significant effects on both the participants and the volatile media (read "newspapers" and "news channels") who will glorify the Indian victory and in doing so, have the capacity to put any person who really has that spirit of the game in him in an odd situation. Now if that person were the captain of the Indian cricket team, he would not mind much, or give much thought to it since many of his ancestor-captains had faced the wrath of this method, and this was the time to redeem those points. OK, given.
For a moment, give a thought to those England fellows, the side that could not win- they did not lose, by the way. Generalize that "side that could not win" to "sides that could not win" and you would find almost all the major cricket teams having been owned by this outdated (the DL actually was also never the opposite of outdated) method that the ICC still uses to resolve shortened matches. In the spirit of the game, they say, it lies.
In the spirit of any game, it is also true that no one should bicker at any loss befallen.
But in the spirit of any game, the result should be decided by the efforts of the participants, not by formulae created by some mathematicians who have no idea of the efforts put in by the participants in that very match- this is akin to making robots that have a human brain, if you get my point. My point in the last sentence however, is vague. As vague as the Duckworth Lewis method.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
I Will Not Sell when they buy
In another year, at a similar time, we were happy. We had good reasons to be happy, our investments were growing at a good rate- no not at a good rate, at an unbelievable rate. Financial gurus and technical experts were all upbeat about the Indian growth story's reflection in the Index of Stocks.
Everyone was fiddling with their demat accounts, from the pan wallah to the IT professional. And they had reasons to do so. Money was pouring into the Indian bourses. Ostensibly, dollars were finding a new home, making partnerships with the rupees. And when one becomes blinded by the quick gains (and they were huge gains), he forgets about his partner- what is he really up to?
Housewives who had nothing to do at home started doing some home shopping. It was all clear in everyone's minds- India is on her way up. No one really noticed the speed with which things were turning out. One of the Seven Deadly Sins had been incurred, incurred on a colossal scale. The Sin was Greed.
People never knew what hit them, how it hit them, and how long was it going to hit them. They had been buying, taking off some air from the bubble that was being built and putting it safely in their electronic balloons. They took off little pieces of the huge volumes that were being traded by the Big Boys, without realizing what the Big Boys were really up to. By sheer luck, the air suddenly expanded in that balloon and they all felt happy.
The Big Boys had a lot of gas, by the way. They created more air, more people got lured into this gaseous trade. The Big Boys never really wanted this to happen. It was amongst themselves- the wrestling for the rising buck (or the falling one). The retail traders were like those irritating house-flies that aggregate when they smell some nice air.
However, the Big Boys were buying then, and buying hard. Were they actually buying? Or just passing the parcel- from one to another at a higher rate? The general public never realized this. And when they were buying, some of us were busy booking profits and buying again- getting lured again by the prospects.
Wow.
Now.
The Big Boys are selling, smartguy! Oops, your money! Why did it suddenly shrink? This should not have happened! But then, how could it happen?
Well, here's how.
There are two ways to make quick money in the bourses if you have a lot of money. (Oh, there's actually only one way to do so- beat the other guy. Buy from him when he's all out, wriggling for cash- and sell to him when he's confident, happy with cash.)
The first way is called the "Call" in the option's market and "Buy" in the future's market.
The second way is called the "Put" in the option's market and "Sell" in the future's market.
The Big Boys were using the first way last year, and what they are doing now is the second way. They had a good margin- a very good one during the second time- almost a 50% one (or maybe more, as time will tell).
And they have good reasons to sell now. The world's economy, that was looking all so spectacular a year ago is now speculated and foresighted as going down a gloomy spiral. The Indian economy, (that was seen as one of the fastest growing economies in the world that would not stop growing for what, some 25-30 years now) has suddenly garnered enough speculation to prove it slowing down, corroborated by the "global factors". The same Boys that were buying so ferociously for 2-3 years into the Indian companies, are now getting their dollars out since they have to be used to pay off other debts that they created by madly (apparently) taking risks.
Now if you look at the Sensex at 8000 some years ago and if you look at it now, the buyers then were buying into relatively expensive stocks. The same scrips, the same companies are now poised at a much better stage, buying other companies outside the nation, having growth prospects better like never before.
Let me put my case straight now:
Fundamentally, the cash investor of this date, of this age is at a beautiful advantage. And the ones who are holding "expensive" material which has suddenly cheapened are at a slight disadvantage. And those who are selling off their goods in sheer panic are going to curse themselves for selling their stuff to some vile, some intelligent buyers who will be cashing in on that a day that's not so far away. And on that day again, the Big Boys shall be playing as usual, unaffected by the sentiment they have created.
Everyone was fiddling with their demat accounts, from the pan wallah to the IT professional. And they had reasons to do so. Money was pouring into the Indian bourses. Ostensibly, dollars were finding a new home, making partnerships with the rupees. And when one becomes blinded by the quick gains (and they were huge gains), he forgets about his partner- what is he really up to?
Housewives who had nothing to do at home started doing some home shopping. It was all clear in everyone's minds- India is on her way up. No one really noticed the speed with which things were turning out. One of the Seven Deadly Sins had been incurred, incurred on a colossal scale. The Sin was Greed.
People never knew what hit them, how it hit them, and how long was it going to hit them. They had been buying, taking off some air from the bubble that was being built and putting it safely in their electronic balloons. They took off little pieces of the huge volumes that were being traded by the Big Boys, without realizing what the Big Boys were really up to. By sheer luck, the air suddenly expanded in that balloon and they all felt happy.
The Big Boys had a lot of gas, by the way. They created more air, more people got lured into this gaseous trade. The Big Boys never really wanted this to happen. It was amongst themselves- the wrestling for the rising buck (or the falling one). The retail traders were like those irritating house-flies that aggregate when they smell some nice air.
However, the Big Boys were buying then, and buying hard. Were they actually buying? Or just passing the parcel- from one to another at a higher rate? The general public never realized this. And when they were buying, some of us were busy booking profits and buying again- getting lured again by the prospects.
Wow.
Now.
The Big Boys are selling, smartguy! Oops, your money! Why did it suddenly shrink? This should not have happened! But then, how could it happen?
Well, here's how.
There are two ways to make quick money in the bourses if you have a lot of money. (Oh, there's actually only one way to do so- beat the other guy. Buy from him when he's all out, wriggling for cash- and sell to him when he's confident, happy with cash.)
The first way is called the "Call" in the option's market and "Buy" in the future's market.
The second way is called the "Put" in the option's market and "Sell" in the future's market.
The Big Boys were using the first way last year, and what they are doing now is the second way. They had a good margin- a very good one during the second time- almost a 50% one (or maybe more, as time will tell).
And they have good reasons to sell now. The world's economy, that was looking all so spectacular a year ago is now speculated and foresighted as going down a gloomy spiral. The Indian economy, (that was seen as one of the fastest growing economies in the world that would not stop growing for what, some 25-30 years now) has suddenly garnered enough speculation to prove it slowing down, corroborated by the "global factors". The same Boys that were buying so ferociously for 2-3 years into the Indian companies, are now getting their dollars out since they have to be used to pay off other debts that they created by madly (apparently) taking risks.
Now if you look at the Sensex at 8000 some years ago and if you look at it now, the buyers then were buying into relatively expensive stocks. The same scrips, the same companies are now poised at a much better stage, buying other companies outside the nation, having growth prospects better like never before.
Let me put my case straight now:
Fundamentally, the cash investor of this date, of this age is at a beautiful advantage. And the ones who are holding "expensive" material which has suddenly cheapened are at a slight disadvantage. And those who are selling off their goods in sheer panic are going to curse themselves for selling their stuff to some vile, some intelligent buyers who will be cashing in on that a day that's not so far away. And on that day again, the Big Boys shall be playing as usual, unaffected by the sentiment they have created.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Bearing the Bears
Now when the bears are attacking, everyone's getting beaten. Every meaning of "beaten" holds true here. What the not so common investor would be realizing, thinking and anticipating is this:
The bubble has burst, no second thoughts on that. Traders are dying, some of them literally attempting suicides. The Indian Sensex and the Nifty have gone down by almost 50% from their year highs. This is "credited" to the FIIs going out, booking losses, profits and despair.
Scientists and artists have love and marvel symmetry. Investors do not. Traders neither. They expect the rise, and never the fall. (Well, some of they do, and they earn, but that is not the general trend- no one enjoys a falling market). The fall of Bear Stearns was just the tip of the iceberg. Freddy and Fannie, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merill Lynch - all of owned the muscle in the financial town, and suddenly succumbed to a myalgia caused by their own incessant and idiotic risk taking coupled by a simultaneously growing mistrust amongst bankers who are realizing "no lending" is better than lending sometimes.
"Liquidity" and "Crunch" are two inseparable words now. The US treasury is stepping in to bail out the spoiled brats who did not know how to manage their funds. That is in itself a calculative risk. Back home, when P. Chidambaram is saying India is secure and is on her way up like never before, no one is actually listening. There are some last men standing, but they have always been standing.
Now if the US has to really turn things around, it would look to create more jobs for its citizens. It has to tax those outsourcing jobs out of the USA harder. It would not be very capitalistic, but capitalism does not seem to be working at this point of time. There is an inertia that is being seen by the common investor. Now if the US really pressurizes those "outsourcers" then that would hit the Indian IT industry. That is bound to happen. So the focus shifts to India. Well, when that happens, the whole world will not be watching India, but that's another story. Now if the Indian IT industry does not want to take that hit, it has to start moving away from the dollar. Europe seems to be a potential destination.
Now what I am trying to prove is that in whatever has happened, whatever is happening and whatever will happen, the robust Indian Economy has never lost, is not losing, will not lose given the strong corporate and financial management of the market drivers and a capable Finance Minster in P. Chidambaram. Hell, the guy has done whatever he could in such a crisis.
The bubble has burst, no second thoughts on that. Traders are dying, some of them literally attempting suicides. The Indian Sensex and the Nifty have gone down by almost 50% from their year highs. This is "credited" to the FIIs going out, booking losses, profits and despair.
Scientists and artists have love and marvel symmetry. Investors do not. Traders neither. They expect the rise, and never the fall. (Well, some of they do, and they earn, but that is not the general trend- no one enjoys a falling market). The fall of Bear Stearns was just the tip of the iceberg. Freddy and Fannie, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merill Lynch - all of owned the muscle in the financial town, and suddenly succumbed to a myalgia caused by their own incessant and idiotic risk taking coupled by a simultaneously growing mistrust amongst bankers who are realizing "no lending" is better than lending sometimes.
"Liquidity" and "Crunch" are two inseparable words now. The US treasury is stepping in to bail out the spoiled brats who did not know how to manage their funds. That is in itself a calculative risk. Back home, when P. Chidambaram is saying India is secure and is on her way up like never before, no one is actually listening. There are some last men standing, but they have always been standing.
Now if the US has to really turn things around, it would look to create more jobs for its citizens. It has to tax those outsourcing jobs out of the USA harder. It would not be very capitalistic, but capitalism does not seem to be working at this point of time. There is an inertia that is being seen by the common investor. Now if the US really pressurizes those "outsourcers" then that would hit the Indian IT industry. That is bound to happen. So the focus shifts to India. Well, when that happens, the whole world will not be watching India, but that's another story. Now if the Indian IT industry does not want to take that hit, it has to start moving away from the dollar. Europe seems to be a potential destination.
Now what I am trying to prove is that in whatever has happened, whatever is happening and whatever will happen, the robust Indian Economy has never lost, is not losing, will not lose given the strong corporate and financial management of the market drivers and a capable Finance Minster in P. Chidambaram. Hell, the guy has done whatever he could in such a crisis.
The Tests Have Begun
India is the unofficial capital of the cricket world. This statement has been corroborated by the Australians staying back in India after deciding to not to play cricket in Pakistan, a decision which has two sides, if not faces. Many suggest that big money has lured the Australians to come to India and play, but they are certainly overlooking the basic difference between Pakistan and India. While Pakistan has been depicted by the media as swimming in an ocean of an imbroglio of uncertainties, India is being looked upon as a place to earn money especially when it comes to cricket- the baptized "passion" of the nation.
But is it really the passion of the nation? The very statement is the Test that I am talking about.
It was known that the advent of Twenty20 would kill the Test audience figures after maiming the ODI ones. And that unfortunately has happened.
One might think that Twenty20 games is what interests the regular cricket audience now, that is getting bored with Tests and even ODIs. A true passionate follower of the game would be cherishing every ball bowled, irrespective of the ball being bowled in Test cricket or in Twenty20.
There are other countries like Australia and England where Twenty20 format was introduced much before, but Tests and ODIs have not lost their glory. The tickets for coming Ashes, for example, would have already been booked.
A lot of people now feel that there has been an overdose of India/Australia clashes now. This is ridiculous since the clash is happening after a whole year now, but it sure is a fact that there has been an "overkill"- of cricket, not of the contest in context, there has been an excess of everything in Twenty20- the same faces, the same attitudes.
So the Test really is for the Test version to stay afloat. Although there are people who love watching Test cricket, it sure isn't getting the attention it used to get when Twenty20 was not there.
There has to be a way to balance the two versions. Err... did I say two? There has to be a way to balance all the three versions of the game. The ICC has to look at how FIFA has managed things with club football and national contests.
Meanwhile, we will see in a few days time if the Test passes the Test.
But is it really the passion of the nation? The very statement is the Test that I am talking about.
It was known that the advent of Twenty20 would kill the Test audience figures after maiming the ODI ones. And that unfortunately has happened.
One might think that Twenty20 games is what interests the regular cricket audience now, that is getting bored with Tests and even ODIs. A true passionate follower of the game would be cherishing every ball bowled, irrespective of the ball being bowled in Test cricket or in Twenty20.
There are other countries like Australia and England where Twenty20 format was introduced much before, but Tests and ODIs have not lost their glory. The tickets for coming Ashes, for example, would have already been booked.
A lot of people now feel that there has been an overdose of India/Australia clashes now. This is ridiculous since the clash is happening after a whole year now, but it sure is a fact that there has been an "overkill"- of cricket, not of the contest in context, there has been an excess of everything in Twenty20- the same faces, the same attitudes.
So the Test really is for the Test version to stay afloat. Although there are people who love watching Test cricket, it sure isn't getting the attention it used to get when Twenty20 was not there.
There has to be a way to balance the two versions. Err... did I say two? There has to be a way to balance all the three versions of the game. The ICC has to look at how FIFA has managed things with club football and national contests.
Meanwhile, we will see in a few days time if the Test passes the Test.
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